Brazil: Sales of coffee crop for 2021/22 reach 28% of productive potential

According to SAFRAS & Mercado consultant Gil Barabach, sales of the 2021/22 harvest have been more timid in terms of volume in recent times, although the committed percentage has advanced well. “The drop in the Brazilian 2021 harvest associated with the high percentage already sold by the producer justifies this shorter stance. The positions with arabica stand out, reaching 35% of the 2021 harvest, ”he indicates. In regions like the Cerrado de Minas, it is close to 60% of the harvest sold. In the south of Minas and São Paulo, sales are 42% and 50%, respectively.

Volatility on the New York Stock Exchange (ICE Futures US) and the strength of the dollar guarantee high prices for positions with future harvests, says Barabach. And the negotiations continue apace. The best beverages advance above the line of R $ 750.00 per bag for delivery in September / 2021, while the best beverages are close to R $ 800.00 per bag for delivery in September / 2022. “A level of prices well above the deflated historical average (taken to current values). And the producer has been able to take advantage of the good moment, surprising the sales ”, he comments.

The high price and the scenario of greater slack in the supply arouse interest in negotiating with the 2022/23 Brazilian harvest, the consultant ponders. "It is that after the stoppage of this year, the expectation is a productive resumption in 2022", he observes, highlighting that the initial parameter is the record harvest of 2020. The most outstanding thing is for the barter operations (exchange) and also for the direct fixings together. transactions.

Barabach indicates that the preliminary idea is that about 20% of the 2022/2023 Brazilian crop (to be harvested in 2022) of Arabica is already sold. In the conilón there is no pre-sale registration for 2022.

"There is also a greater movement in sales for the 2023 harvest, especially in barter operations. It is the producer extending the good moment for his future income," he concludes.

Extracted from: Safras & Mercado